SPIKES No. 739. THE WORLD OF TECHNOLOGIES HAS STARTED DIVISION — THE USA AND CHINA AS TWO POLES OF FORCES
Hello.
The week passed with a fuss and constant layering of information, difficult and difficult, but interesting. From sad events – Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, an engineer who, together with his colleagues, created the entire modern industry and influenced many generations of engineers, passed away. I think you remember Moore’s law, which was formulated playfully, but had a huge impact on the entire microelectronics industry. Moore left us at 94 and lived an interesting and great life.
The departure of people like Moore is always a reason to remember that life remains life, and goes on as usual. Spring is around again, the sun is hot, new models are coming out, and new horror stories are coming up for us. We will talk about some of them in this issue, and some we will leave for other materials.
Starting from March 10, sales of electronics in Russia fell sharply, year by year the fall in certain categories ranges from 20 to 50%, in some regions the situation as a whole is not very pleasant. I have just been to Sochi, where the drop in sales is noticeable, while outside the high season, there is no shortage of people in hotels and restaurants. The usual bustle of resort places, filled with planes that carry vacationers. But sales have plummeted. The explanation is in the emotional fatigue of people, we have already seen this factor several times in the past year, and now it is simply repeating itself. Such conditional seasonality will accompany us for several years. Moreover, horror stories no longer push people to certain actions; after watching the news, no one is in a hurry to stock up in stores. And this is a good reaction to events. Let’s start with one such horror story and start our release.
Kazakhstan will close its borders for goods, and sanctions against Russia
I am constantly amazed at the quantity and quality of verbal interventions. If it is impossible to arrange a trade blockade of Russia and China in practice, then you need to at least pretend that it exists. Recently, it was discussed with great fanfare that since March 1, Turkey has stopped letting goods into Russia from the list of those that fell under sanctions. Sounds unpleasant. Communication with logisticians, however, paints a slightly different picture, they learned about these restrictions from the news but still did not experience them for themselves. The same verbal intervention does not cost anyone a penny but is pleasant for the same American politicians.
An article has appeared in the FT that talks about the emergence of a miracle accounting system for goods in Kazakhstan, which will allow us to fight the supply of goods to Russia that fell under sanctions, and Kazakhstan will comply with all the restrictions imposed on our country. I had the feeling that the text was written in the same way as for Turkey. It’s nice for American politicians, plus they invented a system that would take something into account.
In Kazakhstan, accounting for goods and their movement across the border has been working well for several years. Officials know exactly how much goods go to the country where they go next, and they collect taxes very well, moreover, a third of imports in Kazakhstan go to Russia, and this is not even hundreds of millions of dollars a month. No one can afford to lose this money, which fell on Kazakhstan like manna from heaven, and every month makes so many wealthy, and most importantly, boost the country’s economy. Hence all these interviews, assurances, and sometimes even an indicative stop of shipments of goods (it lasts no more than a week). Money wins the eternal struggle, they cannot be abandoned. And as long as Russia will purchase goods in such a volume, there will be no problems with Kazakhstan and other countries. Moreover, we are witnessing a struggle between these countries for the flow of goods, each of them provides attractive conditions for Russian companies to work through them. Will it be confirmed by officials for the whole world? Certainly not. But will these goods go as before? Definitely yes. Nothing binds countries to each other like money, and now Russia has become a source of wealth for many countries. The fact that it is the money from transit that becomes the soft power used by Russia makes the political situation around logistics particularly piquant. The money for transit is here and now, moreover, it is much larger than all the budgets that have ever been spent by external players in these countries. The choice is obvious and there is no doubt. Those who hesitate, are afraid of risks, and have some kind of connection with the United States, will be displaced within their political structures. And all this without any active intervention of Russia. These processes look interesting in Georgia, where many businessmen are de facto building new ties with Russia, trying to pull over the flows that go through Armenia.
The fundamental mistake in assessing parallel imports is the assertion that only Russia needs them. First of all, this is money, jobs, and much more for the countries through which the flow of goods goes. And at the same time, Russia has no dependence on these countries, since supplies through China remain dominant.
I am touched by the fact that American companies have built a supply chain to Russia, not through Europe, and even little use Kazakhstan, Dubai, and other countries. They built a supply chain through China when their goods go to our country with other nameplates (often this is a condition of supply, the same Dell turns into a product of Russian companies). At the same time, all the software works fine, it is activated from the territory of Russia, and there are no sanctions, as it were. Think about it, American companies are doing this, not small-town manufacturers, but giants who potentially have something to lose. But money is more important, in a crisis they need to sell as many goods as possible. And they all understand that the trade blockade does not work, and the market goes to competitors, so you need to bite into it. The secret operations of American corporations are not so spersonal this is an open secret.
It is possible that because of this, someone will be roughly punished so that others are afraid and beware of delivering goods. Nothing like this happened in a year. But this is potentially possible. What will happen next? Yes, everything will return to normal, money and interest in them will again defeat all fears. So, when reading another article about a super-duper system that will block some Russian cargo, remember that this is not the case. Let’s not be afraid of fiction that does not affect the real state of affairs.
