20 seconds you want to make a guess at what we’re going to see well I think it’ll be up around six tenths and i believe the inventory numbers really saved the day yesterday and I know that we you know often talk about what is the real definition of recession obviously, it isn’t back-to-back uh negative GDP quarters oh that’s only in the eyes of the investors that are trading markets that’s all that counts jobless claims that 256 thousand that’s up 5 000 for oh my gosh boy not only was I wrong down nine-tenths of one percent on first look at second quarter GDP down nine-tenths of one percent okay I know there’s an organization that decides
whether we’re in a recession or not but investors they’re not going to wait for two back-to-back negative quarters it’s not good call it whatever you want consumption up one percent that’s a bit light sequentially that follows 1.8 if you look at the price index also not very good news 8.7 on the price index that will still uh if we look at personal consumption expenditure quarter over quarter exactly as expected up 4.4 percent the high watermark there was 6.1 that was all the way back in June of uh 2021 of a course that was the second quarter and that was the highest since 83 and if we consider all these numbers in totality we definitely want to pay attention to what’s going on interest rates because they are dropping very
quickly initial claims as I said before I saw it down nine-tenths one percent 256 000 the revision has come in revision moves up 10 grand from 251 to 261 000 last week which makes this a lower number by five thousand to two hundred fifty-six thousand on continuing claims one million three hundred and fifty-nine thousand one million three hundred fifty-nine thousand the best
level of the course was back in May and that was one million three hundred and six thousand so this number was better than expected but it is not new at a new post coved uh low as a matter of fact we’re way past post covet that one million three hundred and six thousand that we had a couple of months ago is low since 1969. uh we continue to see the deterioration in stocks and I know there’s going to be a considerable debate as to what this GDP means i really i think got would have predicted a negative number as well
